Remember when Barack Obama was the north star of the Democratic Party? When every Democrat worth their blue tie was tripping over themselves to get a quote in his memoir or maybe—just maybe—a campaign trail shoutout that could sanctify their candidacy? Fast forward to 2025 and—spoiler alert—Obama’s once-glittering political orbit is falling faster than a Chinese spy balloon over Montana.
But hey, nobody tell him. He’s probably busy negotiating his next Netflix special about hope, change, and why the 2008 campaign still matters more than whatever the Democratic Party is doing now. (Spoiler: not much.)
Meanwhile, back on Earth, the Democratic Party is standing around the smoking crater where the Obama coalition used to be, wondering if it’s too late to get a refund on David Plouffe’s consulting fees.
Let’s break this mess down.
From Cool to Cold: Obama World Loses Its Shine
Once upon a time, being “from Obama World” was a golden ticket. Now it’s more like walking around with a Blackberry—technically functional, but mostly a punchline.
Democrats are suddenly waking up to the fact that the mythologized “Obama coalition” has gone the way of Blockbuster Video. Young voters, voters of color, and the “politically disengaged” (i.e., people who don’t watch MSNBC) were the base Obama mobilized with his charisma, rhetorical flourishes, and vibes. Lots and lots of vibes.
But in 2024, those groups shifted—en masse—to Donald Trump. That’s right. Donald Trump. A man whose idea of engaging youth voters is DJing a Kid Rock concert and screaming about dishwashers.
Somehow, Team Obama failed to evolve. They were still doing hope-and-change cosplay while the electorate was moving on to TikTok rants about grocery prices and AI girlfriends.
The Ghost of Campaigns Past
You can trace much of today’s Democratic dysfunction back to one man: Obama. Yes, the guy with the Nobel Peace Prize, the Spotify playlist, and that smug “I wear a tuxedo better than James Bond” energy.
He handpicked Joe Biden as VP, setting him up for a comeback story that ended in 2024 with a re-election campaign that had all the energy of a nap in a nursing home. He knighted Hillary Clinton in 2016, which worked out about as well as putting a Roomba in charge of your fire escape plan.
And let’s not forget the operatives he empowered—David Plouffe, David Axelrod, and Valerie Jarrett. The holy trinity of Democratic consultants who still think the electorate is stuck in 2008, back when people read actual newspapers and thought Facebook was just a fun distraction instead of a slow-moving coup engine.
These folks have remained camped out at the top of the party, giving sage advice like “lean into unity” and “don’t worry about state parties.” Speaking of which…
State Parties to Obama: Thanks for Nothing
Here’s a fun one. The Democratic National Committee recently held an event where they publicly dragged Obama for gutting state-level infrastructure during his presidency. Turns out, when you treat state parties like they’re beneath you, they stay there.
The Obama era saw record levels of disengagement at the local level, with state parties drying up like houseplants left in Rahm Emanuel’s office. And now, a decade later, the national party is shocked—shocked—that there aren’t enough boots on the ground to get a 22-year-old in Georgia to stop doomscrolling long enough to vote.
This, by the way, is what happens when your idea of organizing is emailing people a GIF of Michelle doing the Dougie.
Obama’s Last Superpower: Fundraising (Barely)
To be fair, Obama can still fill a stadium. But so can Taylor Swift and at least she delivers results.
The DNC is reportedly working with New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy to host a fundraiser at his home featuring Obama. Because nothing says “party of the people” like getting squeezed for donations by a couple of guys with waterfront real estate and Netflix development deals.
Even this move reeks of desperation. It’s like when your favorite sitcom brings back a fan-favorite character for a ratings boost. You know it’s not gonna last, and it only makes you sad they ran out of ideas.
The 2028 Problem: Generation Trump
By the time the next presidential election rolls around in 2028, it will have been 20 years since Obama first won. Think about that. More voters will have come of age under Trump than under Obama.
Let that sink in while you scream into your Blue Apron subscription.
The Democratic Party keeps chasing the ghost of Obama’s coolness, forgetting that new voters weren’t even alive for his “Yes We Can” moment. They remember him as the guy who shows up every few years to drop cryptic one-liners and leave before the food arrives.
Meanwhile, In New Jersey: County Machines Test Their Relevance
While Obama World is decaying in the stratosphere, down in the good ol’ Garden State, a whole different battle is brewing. And no, it’s not over Taylor ham versus pork roll. It’s about who actually runs the show in the New Jersey Democratic Party now that the “county line” is gone.
Once upon a time, if you didn’t have the blessing of the county party bosses, your primary campaign might as well have been a yard sale. The ballot was structured so that endorsed candidates got primo real estate—center column, top row, surrounded by local favorites. Everyone else? Siberia.
But in 2023, a lawsuit—and later a law signed by Gov. Murphy—killed the county line. Now ballots are arranged by office, not endorsements, which means the democratic part of the Democratic Party might actually make a comeback. Scary stuff!
Mikie Sherrill: The Establishment’s Favorite (Until They Need a Scapegoat)
Rep. Mikie Sherrill has snatched up endorsements from 10 county party organizations, which cover almost 60% of all registered Democrats in New Jersey. In the old system, this would’ve made her inevitable. Now? She’s just… one of the candidates on the same ballot line as the rest.
The irony is, for all the establishment love Sherrill is getting, the rules have changed right when they would have helped her the most. It’s like finally getting a Netflix password right as the company starts cracking down on shared logins.
Josh Gottheimer, Steve Sweeney, and the Ghosts of Jersey Past
Meanwhile, Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Steve Sweeney—who somehow always looks like he’s about to tell you to buy flood insurance—are trying to carve out their own chunks of the Democratic base.
Sweeney’s banking on South Jersey’s long history of political unity, which in Jersey-speak means “they all get in the same room and decide who wins before anyone votes.” Gottheimer, on the other hand, is doing his best impression of a corporate centrist in a Bernie cosplay world. It’s not going well.
And Ras Baraka, Newark’s mayor, is hoping to channel urban machine politics into a statewide strategy—which is like trying to tow a yacht with a skateboard.
The Machines Are Rusting
This primary will be the first real test of what the post-county-line era looks like. Can candidates still ride the coattails of party organizations when those coattails don’t come with a rigged ballot?
Don’t bet on it. And that terrifies the old guard, who now have to actually persuade voters instead of handing them a cheat sheet.
Conclusion: Obama’s Orbit and Jersey’s Machines—Both Out of Gas
The Democratic Party is entering its “what now?” phase. Obama’s aura is fading, his coalition is splintering, and the strategists he left behind are wandering the political landscape like Jedi without lightsabers.
In New Jersey, the Democratic machine politics that once dictated electoral outcomes are struggling to adjust to a new reality where voters might actually—gasp—choose their candidates independently.
So what does it all mean?
It means the party of hope and change might finally have to, well… change. Not just rebrand. Not just retweet Obama. Actually evolve. Engage with young voters where they are (hint: not in stadiums), invest in local infrastructure like it matters, and stop recycling consultants who peaked during the Bush administration.
Until then, the Democratic Party will continue floating somewhere between nostalgia and irrelevance—trying to relive the Obama years while the electorate logs on to watch Trump’s next meme campaign.
The orbit is decaying. The re-entry has begun. And unless someone grabs the controls soon, the crash landing is going to be spectacular.